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ARCHIVED - Study estimates that a Covid vaccine must be 80% effective for a return to normal life
A new computational model, published in the scientific journal 'American Journal of Preventive Medicine', has found that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete return to normal life.
Researchers from around the world are rushing to find a COVID-19 vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing, the use of masks and limits on interpersonal meetings.
In a new study, this computer simulation model found that if 75 percent of the population is vaccinated, the vaccine has to have an efficacy (ability to protect against infection) of at least 70 percent to prevent an epidemic and at least 80 percent to extinguish an ongoing epidemic.
If only 60 percent of the population is vaccinated, the thresholds are even higher, about 80 percent to prevent an epidemic and 100 percent to extinguish an ongoing epidemic.
"Some are pushing for the vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'get back to normal.'
However, we have to set proper expectations.
Just because a vaccine comes out does not mean that we can go back to life as it was before the pandemic. It is important to remember that a vaccine is like many other products, what matters is not only that a product is available, but also how effective it is, "explains Bruce Y. Lee, of the School of Graduates in Public Health and Health Policy from CUNY, New York (United States).
The researchers say the results of their study can provide goals for vaccine developers, as well as shape the expectations of policy makers, business leaders and the general public.