To recap:
When the last bulletin was sent on Wednesday 8th April, the Covid-19 situation in Spain was as follows:
6,180 new cases, total 146,690
757 fatalities, total 14,555
48,021 recoveries in total
Region of Murcia: 1,326 cases, 85 fatalities, 193 recoveries
By Monday lunchtime after the Easter weekend break the latest figures were as follows:
Spanish national figures: Total cases; 164,498 : 3,477 new cases in the last 24 hours
17,489 fatalities : 517 in the last 24 hours
64, 727 recoveries : 2, 336 in the last 24 hours
Region of Murcia; 1463 cases, 101 fatalities, 221 hospitalised, 43 in intensive care, 353 recovered.
Tuesday lunchtime:
Spanish national figures: Total cases 172,541 : 3045 new cases in the last 24 hours
Total fatalities 18,056 ; 576 deaths in the last 24 hours
Total recoveries: 67,504 : a rise of 2,777 in the last 24 hours, representing a 4.3% increase and bringing the percentage of those who have recovered from the virus to 39.12% of the total cases.
Region of Murcia; 1487 cases, 106 fatalities, 211 hospitalised, 41 in intensive care, 476 recovered.
Wednesday lunchtime:
National figures for Spain: Total cases 177, 633 : 5,092 new cases in the last 24 hours
Total fatalities 18,579 : 523 in the last 24 hours
Total recoveries 70, 853 : 3,346 in the last 24 hours
Region of Murcia; 1520 cases, 109 fatalities, 200 hospitalised, 36 in intensive care, 513 recovered.
Thursday lunchtime:
Total cases Spain: 182,816 : 5,183 new cases in the last 24 hours
Total fatalities: 19,130 : 551 in the last 24 hours
Total recoveries : 74,797 : 3,944 in the last 24 hours
Region of Murcia; 1598 cases, 111 fatalities, 186 hospitalised, 36 in intensive care, 591 recovered.
Friday lunchtime:
National totals: Click for full info
Total cases Spain: 188,068 : 5,252 new cases in the last 24 hours
Total fatalities: 19,478 : 585 in the last 24 hours
Total recoveries : 72,963 : 3,502 in the last 24 hours
NB: The figures for fatalities and recoveries do not correlate with the Thursday figures. See explanation about change in reporting methods below
Region of Murcia; 1625 cases, 112 fatalities, 160 hospitalised, 34 in intensive care, 617 recovered.
During week 5 of lockdown the evolution of the Covid-19 virus in both Spain and the Region of Murcia continues to occupy the majority of news stories as figures are scrutinised in the hope of seeing the long awaited flattening out of the contagions curve and announcement that restrictions are being eased.
The Spanish media reported police roadblocks on the costas and on the roads out of major Spanish cities, but in some areas of northern Spain villagers created home-made barriers from farm vehicles, trees and even concrete blocks in an effort to dissuade the unwanted visitors from entering their communities. The campaign continued into the early part of the week as some drivers attempted a moonlight flit, travelling through the night in order to avoid the queues caused by police checks; by Monday afternoon 376,000 vehicles had been stopped and 5,685 people fined for failing to comply with the lockdown restrictions.
On Monday one of the vehicle checks here in the Murcia Region yielded an
unexpected bonus for the forces of law and order when a
large stash of hash and cash was found in the boot of a vehicle stopped at a checkpoint; as well as arresting the driver and his mate for transporting drugs, the officers also issued a 600 euro fine for failing to observe the lockdown. Double whammy!
Spanish Prime Minister denies that Spain intends to relax the lockdown
As had been expected, the number of cases and deaths over the weekend appeared to plateau, taking into consideration that Thursday and Friday were bank holidays, and Easter weekend is traditionally an important family holiday in Spain, so the chance of the figures not being accurate was high. A similar effect had been observed across the two previous weekends, as the system of compiling the figures via the individual health services of the 17 autonomous regions is vulnerable to the “weekend effect” and the true data often fails to filter through until Tuesday.
This is exactly what happened this week, but of course, by Monday the UK media, headed up by the BBC, were reporting that Spain had reached the desired “flattening out of the contagions curve” and was relaxing its lockdown restrictions.
This prompted an outpouring of scorn on expat social media as on Friday Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had announced his intention of seeking a continuance of the State of Emergency until 11th May (later this week this was tabled for debate in parliament on the 22nd April and is expected to be approved without a problem) and on
Sunday had issued a strong statement denying that Spain was relaxing its lockdown, “Spain is not in the de-escalation phase. Only if we gain ground against the virus and the health system recovers will we advance into that phase. And if not, we will maintain or tighten the restrictions.”
"I want to be very clear: we are not even entering a second phase. The de-escalation will begin at the earliest in two weeks and will be progressive and cautious. General confinement will continue for at least the next two weeks, "he said.
Confusion amongst the UK media was prompted by the return to work on Monday of an estimated four million non-essential workers.
When the government announced the original lockdown and closed retail shops, restaurants, leisure and sporting centres, cultural centres etc, a number of businesses were deemed to be “essential” such as pharmacies, vets and food stores and many other businesses were allowed to continue operating as non-essential services, but as numbers of cases continued to increase in spite of the lockdown, the decision was taken to put Spain into “economic hibernation” until 9th April by compelling non-essential services such as construction, to temporarily close until the end of the Easter holiday period and their workers take enforced holiday to limit the spread of the virus as quickly as possible.
This period concluded on Monday and these businesses resumed their activities, the Prime Minister stating that the return to work was necessary in order to "avoid the collapse and paralysis of our economy."
However, on Sunday
a last minute amendment was issued preventing builders from working in any properties in "which works are being carried out" and in which "workers must share certain common spaces with residents or other users", effectively excluding any works in public buildings or apartment blocks, the result of which is that around half of the construction sector stayed at home on Monday. As the week progressed there was a gradual trickle of workers returning to work, the economic realities facing thousands of businesses leaving them with little choice other than to comply in spite of complaints about the shortage of protective clothing (see masks below).
Economic forecast dire
Although some commentators on social media appear to be living in a state of denial, business leaders across the world have been issuing dire warnings about the potential economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis this week. Three and a half months ago Spain ended a year of solid if unspectacular growth in economic activity after an increase of 2 per cent in GDP during 2019, and the IMF were forecasting similar results for 2020 until just a few weeks ago. However, the rapid spread of the pandemic in this country since early March has resulted in a drastic alteration of that forecast, with the latest prediction being that GDP will fall this year by around 8 per cent – the most significant economic downturn since the start of the Civil War in 1936 (when economists estimate a fall of 26.8 per cent in a single year).
At the same time, the IMF foresees that the unemployment rate will leap back up to 20.8 per cent, having fallen to 13.78 per cent at the end of last year (according to the Active Population Survey for the fourth quarter).
What that means in terms of jobs is that practically all of the employment which has been created in the last six years could be wiped out at a stroke by the coronavirus, with the jobless total potentially rising from just over 3 million at the end of February to well in excess of 5 million. It is impossible to know whether that will actually happen until the state of emergency is lifted and it is seen whether businesses which have shut down in the last month re-employ their staff: in the meantime over 450,000 companies have filed for “ERTE” temporary employment regulation schemes, and while it is theoretically possible that the 3.3 to 3.5 million workers affected could all be taken on again this appears less and less likely the longer the coronavirus restrictions remain in place.
(In the Region of Murcia the official figures released do not include the number of employees affected by ERTE schemes, but unions estimate that the 13,600 schemes relate to approximately 150,000 people).
The IMF expects sharper downturns only in Italy and Greece (-9.1 per cent and -10 per cent respectively), while the effects will be only slightly milder in France and Germany.Click to
read full article
Help for small businesses and the self-employed
On Tuesday the government confirmed that a moratorium is to be established on the tax payments which are becoming due by small and medium-sized companies and the self-employed; all taxes payable by these contributors are to be deferred from 20th April to 20th May, a measure estimated to affect around 3.4 million taxpayers.
The moratorium will be applied to all businesses with a turnover of under 600,000 euros per year, and to the payment of all taxes due on 20th April: these include the VAT for the first quarter of 2020, the “impuesto de sociedades” company tax and the most recent instalments of IRPF (income tax). This is an additional measure after it was announced during March that the self-employed are to be allowed to postpone the payment of their monthly social security contributions for six months.Click to
read full article.
There are many many other schemes and measures being announced daily by local councils and regional governments which aim to help support local business activity, although for all local expat businesses the most important advice is to join the local business association in your relevant municipality and talk to your asesor throughout this crisis as he/she will be better informed than anybody else about your options and how the law applies to your individual circumstances.
Other financial implications
Many businesses, sectors and bodies are affected by lockdown, the effects of which manifest in smaller stories daily. This week one casualty has been petrol stations.When the lockdown was first imposed petrol stations were deemed to supply an “essential service”, providing fuel to the transport sector and thus helping to ensure that food and other supply chains are disrupted as little as possible, so were obliged to remain open.
This is no problem for the larger chains in prime positions on the key transport arteries, but many local service stations are privately run concerns and have struggled to remain solvent as demand for fuel has fallen considerably with most of us confined indoors at home in lockdown. The Compañía Logística de Hidrocarburos (CLH), which is responsible for distributing around 80 per cent of the fuel which reaches forecourts in Spain, reports that demand for diesel and petrol has dropped between 61 and 83 per cent per week as lockdown progresses. As a result,
the government modified the emergency Decree defining lockdown measures this week allowing half of the petrol stations in Spain to close.
Another side-effect of lockdown has been the huge impact on the cultural sector and the cancellation of events, fiestas etc including the Semana Santa processions. Here in the Murcia region the most famous of these are the biblical processions in Lorca for which tickets are sold in advance. With Easter effectively cancelled, the cofradías are now left with the tricky problem of refunds to handle. The costs for running the processions are incurred throughout the year as millions of euros are invested into creating new embroidered cloaks, running their museums, contracting lighting and seating services etc for the processions, activities within their religious brotherhoods, all of which is paid for from the seat sales and although many of the tickets are purchased by locals who support their heritage and local traditions by this purchase, others are sold to tourists, who are only interested in the spectacle.
Online ticket sales accounted for 80 to 90 per cent of all seats sold, and although locals are happy to support their cofradías and do not expect a refund, those running coach trips etc for strictly turistic purposes, do.
So the council in Lorca is now attempting to negotiate a solution in order not to damage this important turistic aspect of the religious celebrations, which will inevitably require somebody, somewhere, putting their hand in their pockets and pulling out some money!. Click
for full story
If you are one of those who purchased tickets for the processions, try and claim via your payment method if possible or sit tight and wait to see what happens; the tourist office can´t help until this is all resolved and a decision taken, so are requesting that you don´t call them with ticket queries at the moment.
Pledges have been made this week by the regional government to support the cultural and tourism sectors, but as we still have no idea when we will finally emerge from lockdown it is difficult to plan, so as a result there have been further cancellations this week, the latest victim being the san Javier festival of theatre and dance, normally held in August.
Masks have been a hot story all week
One of the big topics running throughout the week was that of masks.
Later in the week masks were one of the key issues highlighted in government discussions about potentially easing lockdown restrictions as currently there is a significant shortage of medical-grade masks, which are not available for members of the public to buy in pharmacies and a lack of protective equipment for those who have been compelled to return to work and are therefore at greater risk of contagion due to the increased number of contacts. The main argument has been that it is impossible for the government to relax lockdown restrictions until sufficient supplies are guaranteed for both the public and business sector.
On Monday the Spanish Interior Minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, insisted that a "massive effort" is being made to manufacture more masks in Spain in an effort to ensure that supplies would be available for the public to buy in the pharmacies of Spain by this coming weekend but on Thursday evening Reyes Maroto, the Minister of Industry, said that by next week there will be enough facemasks for the whole population, due not only to extra supplies having been ordered from abroad but also to the stepping up of mass production within Spain.
Certainly the problem of supply for medical professionals, emergency services, armed forces and the various police forces has been one of lack of availability of medically certified masks. Initially the government requisitioned supplies from private hospitals and businesses in Spain in an attempt to obtain sufficient quantities for initial use as stocks were ordered in from abroad.
Donations have been received from NATO, the WHO, EU nations and even China, as well as many private companies, and millions purchased via sources both in Spain and abroad, but still there is a shortage of not only masks but also protective equipment, and partially as a result of this, although there are undoubtedly other factors as well, more than 24,000 medical professionals and 9,000 members of the police and emergency services, have contracted the virus.
At one point the Policia Nacional were even printing their own masks using 3-D printers and in Lorca the council was spending the money raised through imposing lockdown fines on masks!
Slowly, the lack of professional protection is being addressed, although the general public is still experiencing significant problems in purchasing medically certified masks and there is a huge disparity in the prices being charged.
This morning we asked on social media sites whether masks were available in local communities and if so, at what cost, and the range of replies was astonishing.
Many areas of the country have no masks at all for sale anywhere, in others the local councils are handing out free masks to all of their residents (in Alhama de Murcia here in the Murcia Region for example, the council is delivering masks and gloves free to every household) and in some regions free masks are being given to either everyone or those considered to be in at risk groups, the cost financed by the respective regional government.
Prices vary wildly from under 1 euro, to 15 euros in one case, although 2-3 euros for one mask seems to be an accepted "normal level" in most places. Several readers report purchasing online in spite of the fact that most masks sold online claiming to be medically certified are fakes, although some also accept that they know the masks are "probably no good, but it's better to have something rather than nothing." A fairly extensive article about the topic can be read in full by clicking here.
This week millions of masks have been distributed by the national government to workers returning to work in non-essential services sectors, although this has in itself been subject to criticism as insufficient numbers of masks are being made available and socialist councils have been accused of using the mask distribution as a propaganda exercise by their political rivals. (we currently have a socialist government who paid for the 10 millon masks distributed nationwide in this exercise).
But the real problem facing all of us is the fact that until masks are freely available for everyone, the government is unable to proceed with any relaxation in its lockdown policy.
Reporting of data
One of the principal topics in the news this week has been reporting of data, principally the evolution of Covid cases and numbers of deceased.
As can be seen from the figures above, the underlying figures in Spain are finally starting to show the hoped-for levelling-out which appear to indicate that the initial aggressive surge of the pandemic is abating and the number of new cases is lessening as the lockdown starts to work.
However, this week there has been a surge in the number of new cases, NOT because there ARE more cases, but because the government has implemented a new testing procedure following the arrival of new rapid test kits.
These rapid tests do not test for Covid-19 itself but for the antibodies which the immune system produces to combat infection. For this reason it is relatively unreliable in newly infected patients, giving only 60-80% accuracy, but at the same time it is capable of revealing cases of patients who have already recovered without presenting serious symptoms, as the antibodies remain present after the virus itself has disappeared. This form of test has the advantage that it yields rapid results without the need for significant laboratory facilities, so is cheap and quick.
The other form of testing is called PCR, which requires laboratory analyses, so is slow and expensive, but highly accurate.
To date Spain has undertaken 930,230 PCR tests nationally and prior to Semana Santa was carrying out around 20,000 tests daily, whereas the test levels have now risen to around 40-47,000 daily using the new rapid tests, hence the increase in new cases.
This week the government has embarked on a new programme of epidemiological study in the 17 Autonomous communities which uses the rapid tester kits to ascertain how many people have actually been infected.
The Health Ministry believes that 5% of the population will test positive, which means that 2.3 million people have actually been contagious at some point, a far cry from the figures currently being reported, but accuracy of data is required in order to help the government assess how it will manage a relaxation of the lockdown and how it handles the crisis.
Madrid also waded into the argument; its official figures are 50,694 with 6,877 fatalities, but the vice-president of the Madrid Region has said that once the figures of deaths in care homes and homes for the elderly are taken into consideration, the real numbers of deaths are well in excess of 11,000 in this one region alone (this week one of the three icerinks in the Madrid region pressed into service as temporary morgues due to the high number of deaths was closed as the backlog has been cleared).
However, the Health Minister, Salvador Illa, refused to take these deaths into consideration when producing the official figures, saying that the government is following the guidelines of the WHO and only includes “individuals who have been positively diagnosed with Covid-19” in its count.
This means that the figures being put forward by the government ONLY take into consideration those who have been tested and do NOT include those who have died without a formal test having been undertaken, which is an impossible situation as the lack of tester kits, lack of resource and sheer volume of deaths has made it impossible to carry out all of the tests, so patients dying in care homes for example have not been tested at all and the figures are known to be inaccurate.
Although at some point in the future analyses of the figures recorded in the Civil Registries of Spain will indicate the percentage of deaths over and above those normally recorded at this time of year as being “probable Covid-19 deaths”, the
offices are currently facing a crisis of their own, with a huge backlog of bureaucratic paperwork holding up the death certificate processes; this will gradually ease as the cases diminish but not until long after the government has been forced to make decisions based on inaccurate figures.
The political backlash which followed was inevitable, and on Thursday evening the Ministry of Health published requirements in the Official State Bulletin forcing each health authority to base its figures on the same criteria.
At the same time, data regarding the number of patients admitted to hospitals and those given the all-clear (either in hospital or after confinement at home) must be supplied.
This is expected to lead to a surge of “new cases” so expect peculiar data in the coming days. (look at the data at the beginning of this article comparing Thursday and Friday national figures to see how this has already "messed-up " the data; the mathematicians amongst you will get no prizes for pointing out that the numbers of "new cases" between the two days simply don´t add up!)
Already this week the
rapid testing kits are in use at the health centres of San Andrés in Murcia, Jesús Marín in Molina de Segura and San Antón, in Cartagena, as well as at Virgen de la Arrixaca and Morales Meseguer hospitals in Murcia, the Santa Lucia hospital in Cartagena and 6 special Covid-19 points in the rest of the Region (in Murcia, Cartagena, Lorca, Yecla and Caravaca de la Cruz). As of next week it is planned to extend the testing all over the Region
Here in Murcia there are another 21,437 “possibles” being monitored, individuals who have contacted the helpline with viral symptoms, and the intention of the health service is to test all of these people, as well as the 26,474 others who are known to have been in close contact with positive Covid cases.
Each centre is obliged to inform the regional health authority not only of cases confirmed but also of all testing equipment acquired, and the Order will remain in force until the state of emergency is officially declared to be over. Failure to comply will result in the relevant centre receiving a fine. (This is the type of measure the government is enable to enforce when it has declared a State of Emergency as it has the power to do whatever it feels is necessary for the good of the nation including taking over private facilities).
Lockdown restrictions
As stated above, the government is debating the extension of the State of Emergency until 11th May next Wednesday, and this is widely expected to be approved. There is already talk about a further 15 day extension and wide speculation about what will follow.
It must be stressed that NO FIRM DECISIONS ABOUT ANYTHING HAVE BEEN TAKEN AT THIS POINT, contrary to what “some bloke on facebook” or a free Britpress printed newspaper which has always purchased “filler” content for the spaces between its ads and is now desperately banging out inaccurate and sensationalist headlines in an effort to attract traffic and “go online” may be saying.
The government is openly acknowledging that it is studying ways in which the de-escalation of restrictions could be approached, with the first phase possibly taking place in June and July. During this initial phase there would still be some restriction on movement and travel and a “new normality” may be established, depending on how the pandemic develops and persists over the rest of this year, as well as how the resources of the health service recover from the strain of the last two months. Click to read: Spanish government discussing gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions.
But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has warned that no return to “full normality” will be possible until Covid-19 dies out or a vaccine is made widely available, and for example it will not be until the second phase of de-escalation that bars and restaurants will be allowed to re-open, so there is little hope of anything approaching a “normal” summer for any of us.
There is already discussion about the possible subsequent waves of Covid-19 that may follow in the autumn, and this week the Murcian Health Service confirmed that it is already working on its plans for a projected second wave in the autumn.
There is no escaping the fact that this is a worldwide pandemic of a highly contagious virus and politicians in Spain and other countries are openly admitting that we are in for a long haul.
This week expats have spent a considerable amount of time on social media discussing flight options for the summer, and it is highly advisable for anyone wishing to change their Spanish lockdown for a UK lockdown this autumn to consider how they can achieve this over the summer period, although at the moment it is impossible to say with any certainty what travel restrictions will be in place and at what point they will come into force.
It is hard to envisage the Murcian government receiving thousands of summer visitors from Madrid with open arms if there are still cases in the capital, and equally difficult to envisage the Spanish government welcoming planes packed with British holidaymakers should there still be cases live in the UK, particularly after the country has endured weeks of lockdown and economic privation in order to vanquish the virus, no matter how much the country and region need the tourism revenue.
However, although lockdown is increasingly hard to bear, there is no doubt that it is helping to stem the spread of the virus.
A study compiled by researchers at the University of Oviedo and the Autonomous University of Madrid has concluded that the lockdown restrictions and the state of emergency declared by the Spanish government on 14th March have had the effect of reducing the number of coronavirus cases in this country by 79.5 per cent. Their study concludes that had the lockdown not been imposed the number of confirmed cases on 4th April would have almost doubled to 2,392, as opposed to the “real” figure of 1,236 at that date. In Spain as a whole the number of infections could have been as many as half a million higher at 617,000.
In the Region of Murcia, the study compiled by Luis Orea and Inmaculada C. Álvarez reports that the number of cases has been reduced by 48.8 per cent.
An intriguing “what if” scenario in the study considers how the situation might have developed if the state of emergency had been declared a week earlier. This would have meant the cancellation of the mass demonstrations on International Women’s Day (8th March) and of numerous other events where large crowds gathered, such as football matches, and the researchers conclude that four weeks later on 4th April the number of cases confirmed would have reached “only” 47,000 rather than 126,000: a reduction of a further 63 per cent!
There have been many other Covid stories this week which can be read by clicking on articles in the news feed below.
These include:
Rules relaxed to allow final visits to end-of-life care patients in care homes. The proclivity for elderly victims is one of the most brutal and soul-destroying aspects of this virus which has rampaged through care homes in not only Spain but all over the world. Visitors were banned for those known to be contagious in an effort to stem the spread of the virus, so many elderly people died alone, but this week the Murcian Health Authority relaxed the ban to allow one end of life visitor for those who are dying.Click to read
San Javier pharmacy under investigation for selling non-approved facemasks at 10 euros. Click to read.
Coronavirus causes confusion over the end of the school year in Spain. Click to read
Woman arrested in Los Nietos for posing as a nurse and offering Coronavirus tests. Click to read
Muslims in Cartagena donate food to those in need during the coronavirus emergency: Click to read
Coronavirus lockdown breaker detained for walking undocumented sheep: Click to read
Other news this week:
Spanish government plans to ban fracking
This week the Spanish government has announced its intention to ban the controversial technique of hydraulic fracturing, in which rock is fractured by a pressurized liquid to extract underground gas or oil supplies throughout the country by means of a new Law for Climate Change and Transition which is currently being drawn up.
The proposed new law will impose limits and restrictions on all new exploration and investigation activities related to the extraction of hydrocarbons, and it will become impossible for licences to be granted for fracking either on land or in Spanish territorial waters. Click to read full article: https://murciatoday.com/spanish-government-plans-to-ban-fracking_1396024-a.html
Ongoing arguments relating to the Mar Menor this week
This week has been a rather typical one since algal growth first began to appear in unmanageable quantities in the waters of the region's most important tourist attraction, as politicians and the CHS continue to argue about who should pay for what and who is responsible for the current situation.
Regardless of your political inclinations there is no doubt that this summer is likely to be a complete disaster for the tourism sector working in this area due to the Covid situation, so if the lagoon begins to resemble a bowl of pea green soup once again this summer, as seems likely given the proliferation of algal growth this spring, then it won´t be the principal cause of the financial disaster for local businesses.
However, it is still vital to resolve the issues facing the lagoon and find long-term solutions. Click to read the full article which explains in detail what has happened this week: Ongoing arguments relating to the Mar Menor this week.
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