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ARCHIVED - Murcia passes 500 covid deaths but case numbers appear to be stabilising
The number of PCR tests remains considerably lower than last week
The regional health service has published its daily figures relating to the ongoing evolution of the coronavirus in the Region of Murcia for Tuesday 17th November, with a mixture of positive and negative news.
The negative news is that the region has now recorded more than 500 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, the majority of them during this second wave.
During the first wave of the pandemic the Murcia region was consistently amongst the regions with the lowest incidence of cases and deaths in Spain, having locked down very quickly when the danger presented by the pandemic became apparent, and by having the good luck that the original “zero patients” from which the pandemic spread in Spain were living in other regions, so the virus hadn´t really penetrated the region when the lockdown occurred.
It’s been estimated that 4,000 lives were saved by the process of Spain locking down as it did during the spring, and here in Murcia only 1652 cases had been diagnosed by PCR when the region exited from the first wave in June, with only 150 deaths reported in Murcia throughout the whole first wave of the pandemic.
We were warned following the first Seroprevalence studies carried out in Spain that Murcia was therefore statistically more vulnerable to a second wave of covid, as a lower percentage of the population had contracted covid during the first wave, and there was therefore a lower level of potential antibody immunity amongst the population.
It’s also a sad fact that the elderly population of the region and those with pre-existing chronic medical conditions would logically be more vulnerable to the effects of a second wave, as less of those who were medically more vulnerable to the effects of any serious virus, such as flu, were more numerous than in other areas where thousands had been killed during the first wave of the virus.
Unfortunately, the warnings are playing out exactly as predicted, and this second wave is proving much deadlier here in Murcia, having killed more than double the amount who died in the first wave already.
Five deaths during the last 24 hours have pushed the number of fatalities over the 500 line to 502; three men and two women, aged between 77 and 89, two from Caravaca de la Cruz, and one from each of Villanueva del Río Segura, Archena and Moratalla, the latest patients to die from coronavirus.
The positive news is that the figures released in the last few days seem to be flattening off, indicating that there are less new contagions occurring since the region implemented stricter mobility restrictions and closed down the hostelry sector.
Last Tuesday the region carried out 5,389 PCR tests, giving a positivity rate of 14.7% and yielding 797 positive cases.
This Tuesday 4,443 PCR tests have been undertaken, but as the positivity rate has plummeted to only 6.3%, only 280 new cases have been detected in the last 24 hours, a significant improvement on the situation compared to last Tuesday; had the positivity rate remained at 14.7% as it was last Tuesday, then more than double the number of those tested would have returned a positive result.
Last week the number of new cases diagnosed when compared to the previous week showed a continued growth, but towards the end of the week the positivity rate of the PCR tests started to decline markedly, and the number of cases, which were high at the beginning of the week, started to fall off and the numbers started dropping, showing that the measures are starting to take effect.
Adjustment in the figures:
The total overall number of cases has increased today to 49,720, which doesn´t tie in with the figures presented, but the regional health authority has confirmed that it has adjusted the totals, increasing the total number of cases by more than 800 people having completed a revision of the data presented during the last few weeks.
New cases:
The 280 new cases are spread all over the region as follows; 54 correspond to the municipality of Murcia, 25 to Cartagena, 21 to Yecla, 19 to Archena, 18 to Torre Pacheco, 16 to Lorca, 12 to San Javier, 11 to Cehegín, 11 to Cieza, 10 to Molina de Segura, 9 to Calasparra, 8 to Totana , 7 to La Unión, 6 to Los Alcázares, 6 to Caravaca de la Cruz, 5 to Águilas, and 5 to San Pedro del Pinatar, with the remainder totalling less than 5 cases in any specific municipality.
The total number of cases diagnosed for the last 7 and 14 days by municipality can be seen in the chart below, however, bear in mind that the number of active cases in any municipality will be a lot higher, as this chart only shows new cases diagnosed within a 7 and 14 day period by municipality, together with the accumulated incidence rate which is worked out using the number of cases per 100,000 of population in each municipality.
The sum effect of all this is that there are now 11,141 active cases in the region.
Hospitalisations:
Even though the number of new cases reported has started to descend, it will take weeks for the number of hospitalisations and deaths to work their way through the system, so the health authorities are expecting the level of hospitalisations to remain high in the coming weeks. It’s also important to understand that the number of cases detected depends entirely on the number of PCR tests actually carried out; this week the number of tests has been markedly lower than last week, so logically, less new cases are being detected.
But there’s nowhere to hide when patients require hospital attention, so even if less cases are being detected, this doesn´t stop those catching the virus from becoming ill and requiring hospital treatment, and also dying.
Seven further patients have been admitted to hospital in the last 24 hours with coronavirus, bringing the total of patients with more severe cases to 617. The number in intensive care has dropped by 4 to 102. This leaves 10,542 patients in home isolation with mild or asymptomatic cases.
Recoveries:
There have been 813 “all clears” issued to patients formerly diagnosed positive via PCR test, so this total now stands at 35,550.
AI rate:
The regional average number of cases per 100,000 of population has fallen to 277.9 over the last 7 days.
The worst affected municipality is Yecla, with a rate of 914, followed by Caravaca at 691, Totana at 556, Cehegin at 540, Alhama at 516, Blanca at 504, and Fuente Álamo with 488.
At the bottom of the chart, Ojós and Ulea have zero, Águilas 53, Santomera 86, Aledo and Abanilla 97. See below for full chart.
Region of Murcia moves from “extreme risk” to “high risk”
The Spanish Health Ministry maintains a similar system to the EU “traffic light system”, categorising the risk level to the health service in each region based on a series of calculations using a number of different factors, the whole system aiming to flag the vulnerability of any given region as case numbers and hospitalisations fluctuate.
The aim is to be aware of the evolution of the pandemic nationwide to help plan the potential needs of each region.
These latest figures have pushed the Murcia Region out of extreme risk and down into “high risk” where it joins the Balearic Islands and Galicia.
The remaining autonomous regions are all in “extreme risk” apart from the Canary Islands which has very few cases.