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Global warning: Sea level has risen 1.5 metres more than scientists predicted
This implies that 80 million people rather than 30 million are already living below sea level
A major international study has found that global sea levels may be higher than scientists previously estimated, meaning far more people are already living in vulnerable coastal areas.
Researchers reviewing hundreds of climate studies say the rise in sea level has likely been underestimated by around 30 centimetres on average. In some regions, the difference between predictions and reality could be as much as 1 to 1.5 metres.
The findings come from a study published in the journal Nature by researchers from Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands. Scientists analysed 385 research papers on coastal exposure to rising seas published over the past 15 years.
Their conclusion is that many studies rely too heavily on satellite-based models that calculate sea level using gravity and the Earth's rotation. These models often fail to account for local conditions such as winds, tides and ocean currents, which can significantly influence how high the sea actually sits along a coastline.
“Most studies on sea level do not reflect reality because they are based on models and do not use direct measurements,” said hydrologist Philip Minderhoud.
Because of these limitations, earlier estimates suggested around 30 million people lived below sea level, but the new analysis puts the figure closer to 80 million worldwide.
The gap between predictions and reality is not the same everywhere. The largest differences appear in parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific, where sea levels may be much higher than previous projections suggested.
Researchers warn that these underestimates could affect how governments plan for flooding and coastal protection.
“The additional risk to the population is much greater than expected, especially in the most vulnerable countries,” the researchers said, pointing particularly to low-lying developing nations and small island states.
According to climate researcher Xavier Rodó, the models used to estimate sea levels tend to be more accurate in the Mediterranean, meaning the gap between projections and real measurements in Spain is likely to be relatively small.
Image: Freepik
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